Analyzing The 2022 All-NBA 1st Team

Pictured+%28left+to+right%29%3A+Giannis+%0AAntetokounmpo%2C+Devin+Booker%2C+Luka+Don%C4%8Di%C4%87%2C+Nikola+Joki%C4%87%2C+and+Jayson+Tatum%0A

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Pictured (left to right): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, and Jayson Tatum

Edward Campanelli, Sports Editor

LEBRON is another advanced impact metric that stands for Luck-adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-off. Developed by Krishna Narsu and “Tim” with Basketball Index, LEBRON uses offensive roles, impact calculations, and luck-adjustment to identify a player’s overall impact. It combines the raw power of older models and combines it with an explanation of the box score as well as padding techniques. Padding techniques involve scaling a statistic of a player and scaling it down to a stable efficiency according to his offensive role. Basically, if Javale McGee shot 50% from 3-point range in his first 5 games, because he only took 2 attempts, LEBRON would scale that down to account for the offensive role. This is why LEBRON is excellent at identifying a player’s actual impact, past the inefficiencies of the box score. 

Both EPM and LEBRON have specifically offensive and specifically defensive values, as well as a slew of other subcategory stats. I used them here to come as close as possible to detailing each player’s true impact this season, without the statistical biases or flaws of more basic models (such as the box score).

Each season, All-NBA 1st Team honors are highly sought after. This year, the 5 spots have been awarded to Luka Dončić, Devin Booker, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokić. I’m going to break down each selection and explain my justifications. Let’s get into it.

Pictured: Luka Dončić, G/F, Dallas Mavericks (The Ringer)

G: Luka Dončić

📸 courtesy of The Ringer. Pictured: Luka Dončić, G/F, Dallas Mavericks

Dončić, Slovenia’s gift to basketball, also known as Luka Magic, has cemented his spot as one of the NBA’s premier talents. So far in his career, Dončić has earned Rookie of the Year honors, and been named to 3 All-NBA 1st teams and 3 All-Star teams. With him at the helm, the Dallas Mavericks have been regulars in the postseason, making the playoffs 3 times in the last 4 seasons that Dončić has been in the NBA. This season was no exception, with Dončić averaging 28.4 points, 8.7 assists, and 9.1 rebounds. And somehow, he’s managed to outperform those numbers in the postseason across Dallas’ run to the Western Conference Finals (at only 23 years of age!!!).

Overall, Dončić can only get better from here and will be a perennial All-NBA guy for years to come. This selection was 100% deserved, no doubt about it.

G: Devin Booker

Pictured: Devin Booker, G, Phoenix Suns (NBC 12 News)

Booker’s selection for the All-NBA 1st team this season has been a recent topic of disagreement. Many believe that Stephen Curry or Ja Morant deserved the spot over Booker, but I support Booker receiving these honors. Despite his underwhelming postseason performance leading to an early exit for the Phoenix Suns, Booker was far and away the best player on the team with the NBA’s best record (64–18). Booker put up 26.8 points, 4.8 assists, and 5.0 rebounds on average night in and night out. Additionally, Booker didn’t miss significant time due to injuries, as Curry and Morant did. Due to this, I think Booker had the rightful edge in the voting and deserved these honors, but it wasn’t without question.

F: Jayson Tatum

Pictured: Jayson “Owns Your Team” Tatum, F, Boston Celtics (Celtics Wire)

After a disappointing start to the season, the Celtics went from 11th in the Eastern Conference to 2nd, and are now one win away from the NBA Finals. The biggest part of that turnaround is undoubtedly Tatum. Tatum was an unstoppable force on both ends this season. He averaged 26.9 points, 4.4 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game, as well as ranking in the 99th percentile in the LEBRON impact metric (+5.1 and 13 wins added) and the 98th percentile in the EPM impact metric(+5.8 and 16.3 wins added). He’s captained one of the greatest mid-season turnarounds in NBA history and has dramatically improved his defense and playmaking, nearly equaling his offensive wizardry in both respects.

I can’t communicate how much Tatum deserved this selection, as he’s become an absolute superstar at age 24 and the best player on arguably the best team in the NBA.

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo, F/C, Milwaukee Bucks (Yahoo Sports)

Do I even need to explain this? We all knew he’d be here, and by unanimous decision, at that. Antetokounmpo is arguably the best player in the NBA right now and has been for a number of years. He’s stellar on the offensive end, once again averaging mind-boggling numbers (29.9 PPG, 5.8 APG, 11.6 RPG). He sits atop the league in most impact metrics, boasting the #3 spot on the EPM ladder and ranking in the top 5 on the LEBRON ladder. He once again was a finalist for both Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year. Antetokounmpo is going to be a unanimous All-NBA 1st team selection for the rest of his prime.

C: Nikola Jokić

Along with Antetokounmpo, this selection should not be in question. Jokić secured his 3rd straight All-NBA selection, as well as his 2nd straight MVP award. Being the best player according to all major impact metrics in win shares and overall value, Jokic’s spot here should not be in doubt. If not for the position criteria in the All-NBA voting, Joel Embiid would be here alongside Jokic, but Jokic definitely deserved the edge.

Pictured: Nikola Jokić, C, Denver Nuggets (KKTV 11)

All in all, the All-NBA teams are always a topic of debate. This year, many are up in arms over the fact that Joel Embiid was relegated to the All-NBA 2nd team due to position criteria, despite winning the scoring title and coming 2nd in the MVP race. This (among other past discrepancies) has ignited the argument centered around whether or not the All-NBA teams should be position-less, and just the 15 best players of the season. I think it should be. While I understand the lineup configuration of each team (two guards, two forwards, and a center) makes sense for picturing an actual starting lineup, I don’t think guys like Embiid should be snubbed in favor of this criteria. If it were position-less, the All-NBA 1st team would most likely look like this:

  • Luka Dončić
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo
  • Joel Embiid
  • Nikola Jokić

This would send Devin Booker down to the All-NBA 2nd team, which would make more sense.

***Note: EPM is an advanced impact metric that stands for Estimated Plus-Minus, developed by Taylor Snarr. EPM isolates a player’s impact value using tracking data and predictive methods as well as a widespread amount of other statistical considerations. It is regarded as one of the best overall advanced basketball metrics today.